Bel Aire, Kansas 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

357
FXUS63 KICT 261128
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
628 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Record heat this afternoon is driving extreme fire danger.

- A cold front later today will lead to isolated or widely
  scattered showers/storms over southern Kansas this evening
  into early Friday morning.

- More seasonable weather will return for Friday and Saturday
  before another warmup Sun-Tue.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Currently, the ridge axis extends across the Rockies with an upper-
level trough just moving onshore across the Pac. Northwest and
Canadian Pacific. A broad surface low is developing across the
Northern Rockies and into the Northern Plains. As we move through
the rest of today, the center of the ridge will continue to shift
east over the Southern Plains leading to a continued warming trend
with temperatures reaching into the lower to middle 90s for nearly
all locations across the forecast area, meaning another day of
potential broken records. As the surface low dips into the Central
Plains later this morning, a cold frontal boundary will begin to
nudge its way into northern Kansas. Model consensus brings the cold
front across the forecast area later this afternoon and evening.
Breezy southerly winds are anticipated during the day ahead of the
frontal boundary with gusty northerly winds behind it. Wind gusts
between 40 to 45 mph are possible this afternoon and into the
overnight hours.

Later this evening and into early Friday morning, we`ll see some
showers and storms develop along the frontal boundary. Severe
weather is not anticipated as it looks like the cold front will
outrun most of the convection. Precip amounts look minimal with the
activity tonight, a few lucky locations could see a quick downpour
that could bring up to 0.25" of rainfall. Overall, we`re not
expecting a drought-buster with this system.

Behind the front on Friday and Saturday, the trough will exit the
region to the east and a surface high will settle in over the area.
Slightly below normal temperatures are expected for Friday at this
time with highs topping out in the middle to upper 50s. Near normal
temperatures are then expected for Saturday with highs remaining
near 60 degrees. As the high shifts off to the east and a surface
low deepens to the west, breezy southerly winds are expected on
Saturday and again on Sunday afternoon. By the end of the forecast
period, the ridge will begin to build back in over the Plains. This
will lead to increasing heights and rebounding temperatures by
Sunday and into early next week with afternoon highs reaching into
the 80s areawide.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Strong southerly/southwesterly winds will impact all sites
through 18Z with wind gusts between 20-30 knots. A frontal
boundary will move from northwest to southeast across the area,
quickly turning winds out of the north. Strong wind gusts will
continue behind the front with wind gusts between 25-35 mph
expected. Along and behind the front, a few showers and storms
are expected for HUT, ICT, and CNU after 00Z. Only included
mention at this time, as exact coverage and impacts are still
uncertain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 203 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Anomalously hot temperatures along with breezy winds will
combine to create extreme fire danger this afternoon and
evening. Strong southerly winds this afternoon will turn
northerly behind a cold frontal boundary this evening. While
cooler temperatures are anticipated behind the front, much lower
RH values will filter in leading to a prolonged time frame for
elevated fire concerns.

Very High fire danger will continue to be a concern for much of the
area on Friday through Tuesday each afternoon. Post-frontal
northerly winds and drier air will be the primary driver on Friday
while breezy south to southwest winds return on Saturday through
Tuesday. Temperatures will once again warm above normal on Sunday
through Tuesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 203 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Thursday (3/26):
Wichita: Forecast - 95, Record - 83 (1918)
Russell: Forecast - 89, Record - 90 (1989)
Salina:  Forecast - 93, Record - 86 (1910)
Chanute: Forecast - 93, Record - 85 (1918)

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this
evening for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AMD
AVIATION...AMD
FIRE WEATHER...AMD
CLIMATE...AMD